Saturday, November 17, 2012

College Football Nation: One loss too many, even in the SEC

The response was almost immediate.

As evening became night and Texas A&M finished off its upset win over Alabama sending a roar across the college football landscape, it suddenly placed the SEC on the outside looking in at the national championship with none of its 14 teams unbeaten but three BCS insiders from elsewhere still perfect.

Then the returning echo was heard.

A one-loss SEC team, came the response by some, should play for the title above Notre Dame, or Oregon, or Kansas State, even if they stay undefeated.

And here?s the reply to that: Hell no.

There?s no question that should two or more among the Fighting Irish, Ducks and Wildcats lose that a one-loss SEC team would deserve inclusion in the BCS title game above all other one-loss teams.

None.

"Two of the three national championship teams I coached lost a game," Alabama coach Nick Saban said after Saturday?s loss. "This team still has an opportunity to win the West and go to the SEC championship game and win a championship."

Of course, in those two years there weren?t undefeated teams passed over in favor of his one-loss teams.

There is an argument to be made for including a one-loss SEC champion in the BCS title game ahead of anyone else. It begins with the fact that an SEC team has won the national championship for six years running, and only one of those games was close.

It continues with the fact that none of the SEC?s top contenders this year were beaten by anyone but another SEC team.

Alabama, the presumed king of all college football after winning two of the last three championships and rolling to 9-0 before losing to the Aggies at home on Saturday, only has that one loss. Florida?s lone loss is to Georgia. Georgia?s only defeat is to South Carolina. South Carolina has only fallen to LSU and Florida. LSU has only been beaten by Florida and ?Bama. And Texas A&M?s only losses are to LSU and Florida.

Why, the argument goes, should Alabama - or Georgia, should the Bulldogs win the SEC title game - be penalized when surviving the gauntlet that is the SEC is so much more difficult than staying perfect through the Pac-12, or Big 12, or the independent schedule played by Notre Dame?

It?s reasonable, if it?s accepted that the football played in the SEC is that much better than the football played everywhere else, if, as South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier ludicrously suggested a couple of weeks ago that Alabama is so good it could compete with the dregs of the NFL.

But that?s where the argument falls apart.

Beyond past performance - in truth the performance of two years ago since in its infinite wisdom last year the BCS pitted two SEC teams against each other for the national championship in a rematch of a regular-season game - there?s no concrete evidence that the SEC plays on a separate plane.

Of all the teams with only one or two losses, only two - Alabama, which beat up an overrated Michigan team the opening week of the season, and Texas A&M over Louisiana Tech - have beaten a ranked team in non-conference play.

Beyond that, only two - the aforementioned Alabama, and LSU, which beat Washington - have so much as beaten any team from another BCS conference.

Meanwhile, last Saturday, just hours before Texas A&M rolled the Tide, Florida avoided going to overtime against Louisiana-Lafayette only thanks to blocking a punt and returning it for a touchdown in the waning seconds.

And then there?s the performance of those Aggies.

Just a year ago, they were members of the Big 12. And just a year ago, playing in a supposedly weaker conference, they went 7-6 overall and 4-5 in conference play, yet now in the mighty SEC they?re 8-2 overall and 5-2 within the SEC.

Going back to last year, there wasn?t an avalanche of signature wins from the SEC over power teams from other conferences.

LSU had a superb win over Oregon and a solid one over West Virginia, Arkansas beat Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl, and South Carolina beat Orange Bowl-bound Clemson. But Alabama?s best win was over Penn State, which wound up 9-4. Florida lost to Florida State. And Georgia, which won the SEC East, lost to Boise State and Michigan State.

The SEC has built up a whole lot of credit when it comes to measuring its teams against those from other conferences, but it?s not based on anything spectacular that?s happened the last two years.

Looking ahead, should Florida beat Florida State and South Carolina top Clemson, the SEC could begin to mount some evidence that it?s far and away the nation?s best conference.

There?s no denying that it?s probably the nation?s best league, but given the lack of actual games played against other solid teams it?s based on opinion and not fact. And based on the fact of Texas A&M?s seamless transition from one of those supposedly inferior conferences, and the fact that on a bad day Florida could nearly be had by a mid-major, the answer to that echo?

Hell no.

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What We Learned

There?s been no greater disappointment than West Virginia, which has had a spectacular fall over the past month.

After demolishing Clemson in last season?s Orange Bowl, the Mountaineers were in every preseason top 10, expected to compete with Oklahoma for supremacy in the Big 12 in their first year in the conference.

While Texas A&M and Missouri were supposed to struggle mightily after moving from the Big 12 to the SEC, West Virginia was supposed to make a seamless transition from the Big Least. Instead, the Mountaineers have gotten a rude awakening.

They started the season 5-0, and rose all the way up to fifth in the AP media poll and fourth in the USA Today coaches? poll.

They were ahead of Kansas State and Notre Dame, and trailed only the mighty from the SEC and Oregon.

Since then, there have been four straight losses. Three of them haven?t been close, and in none have the Mountaineers allowed fewer than 39 points. In fact, they?ve only allowed fewer than 39 points three times, last on Sept. 22.

"You can?t say we played good defense for the exception of seven or eight snaps, which they scored on," West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen said about the Mountaineers? 21-point loss to Oklahoma State during a press conference on Tuesday. "We have to play like that all the time. We are having a hard time getting through to our guys, which is coaching, that we have to play like that all the time. That is the challenge."

It was pretty clear the Mountaineers were frauds early in the season when they beat Baylor 70-63 and Texas 48-45. No true contender for the national title plays such bad defense on a consistent basis.

But the level to which West Virginia?s defense has sunk is disgraceful.

The Mountaineers allow 41.4 points per game. That?s 117th out of 120 FBS teams. It?s unconscionable for a team with the ability to attract athletes like West Virginia to be so bad defensively.

Holgorsen is an offensive guru, apprenticing under Mike Leach at Texas Tech from 2000 through 2007 before moving on to Houston for two years and then spending one with Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State before taking over as West Virginia?s head coach last year.

His offense is good.

But he either can?t coach defense, or the staff he?s entrusted West Virginia's defense to is doing a pathetic job.

Geno Smith, once the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy, is still having a solid year. He?s thrown for 3,041 yards and 31 touchdowns with only three interceptions, two of them in West Virginia?s 55-14 loss to Kansas State.

But in the last two weeks two players - wide receivers Ivan McCartney and Travares Copeland - have left the team.

It?s been a spectacular fall.

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Game of the Week

A pair of the remaining unbeatens face their toughest tests to date.

Oregon, its defense depleted by injury, might just be ripe for the taking by bruising Stanford. And Ohio State - remember them? - after skating by against the likes of Purdue and Indiana, might just be ripe for the taking on Saturday night at Camp Randall by the bruising Badgers.

If the Ducks and Buckeyes are to survive, run defense will be crucial.

Oregon, which doesn?t freely divulge injury information, may be missing its entire starting defensive line. Dion Jordan, Isaac Remington and Ricky Heimuli all missed Oregon?s win over Cal, which moved the Ducks up to No. 1 in the human polls and No. 2 in the BCS Standings. So did Wade Keliipipi, who was reportedly spotted on crutches, on Monday.

Missing four starting defensive linemen is one thing against Cal. It?s an entirely different thing against 13th-ranked Stanford.

The Cardinal don?t run wild, but Stepfan Taylor averages better than 106 yards rushing per game, and quarterback Kevin Hogan, who replaced Josh Nunes as the starter for Stanford?s win over Oregon State last week, passed for 259 yards and ran for 60 more against the Beavers.

Oregon, which has scored no fewer than 42 points in any game this season, may not be able to stop Stanford the way it?s stopped everyone but USC, meaning they may be forced to score the way they always do.

"I think it?s a huge challenge offensively," Oregon coach Chip Kelly said at his weekly press conference on Monday. "We?ll be matched up against the best defense we?ve faced so far."

Ohio State faces a problem similar to Oregon?s.

The Buckeyes are missing linebackers, which isn?t ideal when Montee Ball, James White and the Wisconsin offensive line are across the line of scrimmage.

Ball, a finalist for the Heisman Trophy last year, has gained more than 200 yards in two of Wisconsin?s last four games - and 171 in another - and the Badgers rolled up 564 rushing yards in a 62-14 win over the same Indiana team that Ohio State beat just 52-49.

Thanks to NCAA sanctions, Ohio State is playing for nothing more than pride this season, and an unbeaten season would inspire some significant pride in Urban Meyer?s first season leading the Buckeyes. But if Ohio State can?t stop Wisconsin on the ground, a loss is looming.

"They?re a much improved football team (over earlier this season)," Meyer said of Wisconsin. "Teams either get better or get worse. Obviously, the team we?re playing this week has gotten a lot better, and they?e playing probably their best on both sides of the ball right now."

Tough tests await two unbeatens.

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My Top 10

1. Oregon (10-0): Perhaps the biggest challenge of the season awaits.

2. Kansas State (10-0): TCU isn?t what it was, and shouldn?t pose a problem.

3. Notre Dame (10-0): One more easy one (Wake Forest) before USC.

4. Georgia (9-1): The Bulldogs keep looking better and better.

5. Alabama (9-1): Amazingly, the defense has looked vulnerable the last two games.

6. Florida (9-1): Very nearly a horrific loss.

7. Ohio State (10-0): The Badgers could end the Buckeyes? perfect season.

8. LSU (8-2): Ole Miss in Death Valley should be an easy one.

9. Florida State (9-1): E.J. Manuel quietly putting up great numbers.

10. Texas A&M (8-2): Thankfully, freshman wide receiver Thomas Johnson, who was reportedly missing from Monday through Wednesday, was found safe, which is a whole lot more important than this week?s game against Sam Houston State, or even last week?s against Alabama.

Eric Avidon can be reached at 508-626-3809 or eavidon@wickedlocal.com. Follow him on Twitter @ericavidon.

Source: http://www.metrowestdailynews.com/sports/pros_and_colleges/x719493675/College-Football-Nation-One-loss-too-many-even-in-the-SEC

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